Doorbraak-radar
Wat staat op punt te breken
Elk AI-thema doorloopt een vaste keten: het begint in wetenschappelijke papers, krijgt een implementatie bij developers, en breekt pas daarna door in het nieuws. Wij volgen elk thema door die keten — en meten hoeveel voorsprong we op de mainstream media hebben. De middelste kolom is waar het gebeurt: sterk in expert-bronnen, nog niet in de mainstream.
Laatst bijgewerkt: 5 okt 2026 · 14-daags venster
We hebben het teruggemeten. Over de afgelopen60 dagen vlagden we 41 thema's als "staat op punt te breken". Hiervan brak 7 daadwerkelijk door in de mainstream media binnen 14 dagen:
17%brak echt door
8.1dgem. voorsprong op de mainstream media
13dgrootste voorsprong
41gescoorde calls
Lees dit percentage met de kanttekening erbij: van deze 41 calls kwamen er 34 niet uit. En de strengste toets hebben we ook gedaan: we husselden de vlag-datums 1.000× willekeurig. Onze echte timing zag de mainstream in 28% van de gevallen eerder, tegen 33% bij een willekeurige datum (p=0.994, n=285). Dat verschil is statistisch (nog) niet te onderscheiden van geluk. Zie het dus als "wat er daarna echt gebeurde", niet als bewijs van voorspelkracht. De volledige uitleg staat op de track record.
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⚡ Het alpha-venster
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Hoe je dit leest
- wetenschap (ArXiv)
- developers (GitHub, HN)
- product (HuggingFace, PH)
- pers
- social
Corroboratie telt hoeveel verschillende bronklassen een thema oppikken — spreiding over bronnen is een sterker signaal dan veel ruis uit één hoek. De voorsprong (alleen in de alpha-kolom) is het aandeel activiteit dat in expert-bronnen zit terwijl de mainstream media nog stil is: hoe hoger, hoe groter het open venster.▲/▼ is de wekelijkse versnelling.
Teruggemeten doorbraken
De thema's die we als "staat op punt te breken" vlagden en die daarna echt doorbraken, met het aantal dagen voorsprong op de mainstream media. Let op: dit zijn alleen de hits. De 34 calls die niet uitkwamen staan hier niet.
- +13dworld modelgevlagd 4 sep → doorbraak 17 sep
- +9dcomputer usegevlagd 5 sep → doorbraak 14 sep
- +9dh100gevlagd 23 aug → doorbraak 1 sep
- +8dclaude opusgevlagd 18 sep → doorbraak 26 sep
- +8dcpugevlagd 14 aug → doorbraak 22 aug
- +8dttftgevlagd 13 sep → doorbraak 21 sep
- +2dcontext windowgevlagd 21 aug → doorbraak 23 aug
De doorbraakketen
De vroegheidsketen is empirisch: een techniek verschijnt eerst als ArXiv-paper, krijgt weken later een GitHub-implementatie, bereikt dan HackerNews en Product Hunt, en haalt pas daarna de tech-media. Een thema dat tegelijk in ArXiv én GitHub opduikt maar nog niet in het nieuws is het sterkst mogelijke vroege signaal. Deze radar maakt die positie zichtbaar — en update elke dag mee.
Geen cherry-picking in de keten zelf: dit is de volledige, gecureerde set. We filteren ruis (tickers, jargon, evergreen-termen als "AI" of "LLM" die altijd bovenaan staan) eruit, zodat alleen echte, onderscheidende signalen overblijven. Wil je het bewijs achteraf? Zie de track record — wat we eerder vlagden en wanneer de mainstream media volgde.